Still Dry, Some Moisture in Forecast, Will it Verify?

Well, its been another week of the same, no measurable precipitation. But, and I say this cautiously, there is an opportunity for some moisture to fall over the next two days. It isn’t a drought busting rain, but forecasted amounts of around 10mm would still provide some benefit. Will it verify? We will find out!

Besides the dry weather, it has also been cool. That is what is saving the 2023 crop. We are getting daily highs of mid to high teens to low 20’s, which is well below average for this time of year. Adding to this is the mid to high single digit lows – this is helping the crop recuperate and limit the stress. You can see areas of the field going backwards – mainly sand runs and higher spots of the field. The lower areas are still hanging on though.

At the middle of June we were well ahead of average for crop staging. In fact, I would say we were at least 2 weeks ahead of normal, and 3.5 weeks ahead of 2022 (which was a later season). With the cool weather we have been having the last couple of weeks, we are now only slightly ahead of normal. If this next weeks cooler weather along with some moisture verifies, it would put us back to more a more normal crop stage for this time of year.

Grain prices have been rallying recently with the dry weather we have been having. Canola, which was over $20 per bushel for most of the last 2 years, fell to just over $13 per bushel for new crop pricing back at the end of May / early June when the crop was in much better condition across Western Canada. With the declining crop conditions the price has rebounded to put us back over $18 per bushel. Crop conditions across the US Midwest have also been quite variable, which has caused the price of corn and soybeans to rise as well. This doesn’t take the full sting out of the drop in production potentials, but it takes some of the pressure off.

Hopefully the next update will be one with positive news on moisture!